A common scene.

"Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo" (thetomselleck) 05/02/2018 at 15:51 • Filed to: Houses

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Sometime in 2007, four families bought these once-new homes. A short dead-end street, tucked away from the main drags through Kirkland and Redmond, where they thought they’d get some peace and quiet.

[dramatic music]

10 years later, the run-down rambler with an inexplicable amount of acres gets mowed down, and you get to listen to 50 homes being built 6 feet away, year round, for what I suspect will be 18 months overall.

[Sad trombone]

Two of the homes on this street are now up for sale.

But don’t feel pity... these people are making a killing for no good reason, after buying them at rock-bottom prices a decade ago.

Moral of the story? Fuck this market.

Spaceball-Two > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo 05/02/2018 at 15:57

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There’s a conglomerate of brokers who are now working under a firm out of CA buying up inventory 30% over market, I can’t even compete with that. Inventory is drying up fast!

Ash78, voting early and often > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo 05/02/2018 at 15:58

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Bummer, but it happens everywhere. I’m shocked how many houses today get crammed into a single lot from 1965-1980. Six on the low end, 15+ on the high end (more if they’re townhomes, but most zoning boards still hate those. But put 3’ of space between them and it’s okay!).

My parents bought into one of the most expensive new neighborhoods in our area about a year ago, just to watch all the surrounding treelines get leveled and platted for 100+ additional houses. Every day, every road covered in mud, nails, gravel...for the next few years. Nail guns and radial saws at 6am, at least 6 days a week. There is no separate construction entrance in many cases, so the heavy equipment slowly destroys the road the city won’t topcoat the asphalt until construction is done.

If you have a lowered car, be sure to swerve around the 3” high manhole covers, too.

jimz > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo 05/02/2018 at 15:59

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well, the heads of all the four families need to have a sit-down and make them an offer they can’t refuse.

Twingo Tamer - About to descend into project car hell. > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo 05/02/2018 at 16:00

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Happens in every country. You have to take the approach with surrounding land of “do you own it?” If not assume a gazillion houses will one day appear on it.

benjrblant > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo 05/02/2018 at 16:06

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From a planning perspective, this is frustrating because it taxes the infrastructure. When those streets were cut and that ‘hood was developed, it was planned for a specific population density. Quadruple that density and the streets become crowded, the arterial roadways become more packed, and it taxes the utility infrastructure too.

Eric @ opposite-lock.com > Spaceball-Two 05/02/2018 at 16:08

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To what end? Are they simply pushing prices up so they can trickle inventory out at ever more nosebleed prices?

I just figured out that a house on my street is unoccupied (hasn’t been since before we moved in). The yard is overgrowing now and nobody ever comes or goes.

My old neighborhood in Bellevue had a bunch of homes sitting empty.

My building on Bainbridge was mostly empty for the vast majority of the year. I couldn’t even tell you which had not been occupied at any point when I was there, but I’m sure it was more than a couple of them.

Oddly, I don’t remember seeing this in SoCal, in spite of Prop 13, which should have made it a really cheap proposition for a good fraction of owners (moving away and leaving a house vacant that you only visit a couple nights a year would be cheaper for many people that bought in the 1970s or transferred it to a trust than a couple nights in a hotel would cost in those same areas).

BeaterGT > Ash78, voting early and often 05/02/2018 at 16:09

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Exactly this. My mom’s house to be the only house on the right hand side of a one mile stretch of road. Now it’s the least expensive house on that same stretch. Two developments built disrupted any remaining wildlife in the area only for the new owners to realize they can’t afford these shoddy quality houses and now half of them lay empty waiting for new suckers owners.

Eric @ opposite-lock.com > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo 05/02/2018 at 16:10

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This market has been psycho for at least 5 years. Flat psycho.

It was crazy before that.

Hasn’t been even marginally normal anywhere in this country since the mid-90s.

fintail > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo 05/02/2018 at 16:17

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Indeed, those poor rich people.

Spaceball-Two > Eric @ opposite-lock.com 05/02/2018 at 16:17

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This new group is trying to get a foot hold and make a name for themselves. They are at auction with a massive group of guys just wildly bidding on whatever comes up. I had two houses on my block ( core Bothell) sell in less than 48 hours last week. Both went WAY over asking. I find it odd that there is so much new building going up but it’s priced out so badly that the middle of the road homes for starter families are out of reach.

fintail > Eric @ opposite-lock.com 05/02/2018 at 16:18

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There needs to be a punitive and crushing tax on unoccupied housing, in light of the affordable housing crisis which is a very real thing. Make it 100% or more, and 200% tax for offshore buyers.

Chariotoflove > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo 05/02/2018 at 16:18

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You really can’t be sure of keeping space around you unless you actually buy that land. It doesn’t even matter if it’s supposed to be city park or something. There’s always the chance that someone with enough money will convince the city to rezone.

I remember 30-some years ago when a developer was going to build a concert venue on some farm land near our house out at the edge of the county. The homeowners (my parents among them) hired lawyers who managed to successfully fight the rezoning. Thank goodness they did, because the area that did get the amphitheater suffered massive traffic problems and party goers.

These days, the corn fields are slowly being turned into housing, but it’s well-built housing and not high density.

razorbeamteam > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo 05/02/2018 at 16:26

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Oh man, feel bad for me though. There’s been a $4MM+ home being built right next door to me for the last year. The stuff I’ve had to deal with is insane. From starting work before city ordinance hours, absolutely destroying our front flower beds by running through them with a cherry picker, hitting the side of our house with a backhoe, spraying acid wash on our property, and one time actually attempting to enter our house because “our landlord said it was ok to come in and use our power”. Also, they destroyed a beautiful Lincoln Park brownstone to build this monstrosity. Can’t wait to meet my new neighbors.

I live in the city in a humble rental coach house lest anyone think I myself posesses wealth.

Eric @ opposite-lock.com > Spaceball-Two 05/02/2018 at 16:35

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Do they buy property that isn’t being auctioned? When we were looking for a house I remember that we saw a bunch of stuff up that way that went for unreal large amounts over asking, way beyond any comps in the area.

My neighborhood has seen a few sales recently, with most going for around $35-40k over asking, but nothing crazy by local standards. Mind you, we live a long way from work because we couldn’t afford closer, even on our combined incomes (both of which are well over the county median). The other day my wife looked up a recent sale and declared that we are now officially priced out of our neighborhood. Somewhat funny when you consider that based on what we paid I suspect most of our neighbors would never be able to buy even at what we paid.

lone_liberal > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo 05/02/2018 at 16:46

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Our house once sat between two houses and had forest land behind us that was owned by a cemetery in case they had to expand some time in the future. The cemetery sold the land to a developer, they moved one of the houses next to us, put in a road, and bulldozed the forest. The real cherry is that originally the city was requiring the developer to sell 1 acre lots, but of course that got smoothed over and they went down to quarter-acre lots. We now have a corner lot (sort of) and a view out of our back windows of a bunch of very large houses on too small lots.    

Spaceball-Two > Eric @ opposite-lock.com 05/02/2018 at 16:51

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Yes they’ll buy outside of auction, however if they have a buyer lined up there is crazy assignment fee. Tack on another 15-25k for the new buyer. We bought our house at the bottom of the market and a year or so ago we refi’d and when the appraisal came in we quickly realized we couldn’t afford our home in this market either.

Eric @ opposite-lock.com > Spaceball-Two 05/02/2018 at 17:03

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What’s crazy about ours is that we only bought our house about 6 months ago... It has gone up about $50k since then and we stretched for the mortgage we got with a very substantial down payment.

just-a-scratch > benjrblant 05/02/2018 at 17:08

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Those are parts of the checking process for permits, or should be. I don’t know about those cities.

Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo > Spaceball-Two 05/02/2018 at 17:32

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There’s a California company that bought out two of the largest builders in King/Snohomish last year as well. Hmm...

Spaceball-Two > Eric @ opposite-lock.com 05/02/2018 at 17:33

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I’m setting up a new file right now, 1800 sf with daylight basement in Kenmore. Purchased for 440k, borrower will do about 100k in reno with expected sale price at completion of around 650k. That’s a nice little chunk of change on a flip.

Eric @ opposite-lock.com > Spaceball-Two 05/02/2018 at 17:44

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That is some serious cash on a flip... I am surprised there’s any money in flipping here, though, considering even terrible fixer properties are super expensive.

Spaceball-Two > Eric @ opposite-lock.com 05/02/2018 at 17:55

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There’s a ton of money in flipping here. I mange WA and OR renovation and construction loans and I’m the busiest I have ever been in over 10 years.

Eric @ opposite-lock.com > Spaceball-Two 05/02/2018 at 18:05

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I would have thought that the extremely limited supply of construction workers combined with nosebleed high housing prices (not to mention the reason many houses are in questionable shape here) would make the potential for downside high. Does renovation really add that much to their values? I’ve seen legitimate junk that was selling for only a bit less than a similar updated house, which is why we didn’t entertain a renovation for long even though we have plenty of places we could live while doing one.

Then again, when simply possessing a property for 3-6 months increases the value by 5-10%, I guess it’s almost impossible to lose.

Spaceball-Two > Eric @ opposite-lock.com 05/02/2018 at 18:11

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It’s not the lack of workers that is the problem. It’s that they’re all very busy and don’t have time to squeeze in another job. 100k for a flip like that is a new roof, interior and exterior paint, some HD cabinets and vanities with update granite and some shiny new appliances. New flooring and carpet and some new fixtures here and there. I do these all day long and they all end looking exactly the same. White cabinets with Zoidberg lighting and cheap Lowes fixtures.

Sovande > fintail 05/02/2018 at 18:42

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You think imposing high taxes on people who own houses that sit unoccupied is an actual good idea? How many rooms do you have in your house? Should there be a tax levied if your home isn’t occupied to the fullest extent? People who buy homes should be able to whatever it is they see fit with the house as long as it’s not illegal.

Frenchlicker > Chariotoflove 05/02/2018 at 20:59

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Sounds like Noblesville Indiana.

fintail > Sovande 05/02/2018 at 21:32

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I definitely do. I live in an area where residential real estate has been ruined by speculators/money launderers. We now have endless examples of dark condo towers and rotting detached houses, in the middle of a housing crisis. Fuck em - tax the living shit out of em and use it to build infrastructure and affordable housing. Most of it is dirty offshore money brought in via pay to play residency anyway, they can afford it - if we are going to cater to people who’d be in prison had they obtained the money here (and would probably be at the wrong en of a guillotine in times past), might as well profit from it, and let some others other than lucky older people and realtors reap some gain.

Better yet, ban offshore purchases altogether, end residency for sale.

Directly making it about me speaks volumes of your knowledge to the issue. Oh yeah, I don’t have extra rooms, I can’t afford them.

Chariotoflove > Frenchlicker 05/02/2018 at 22:32

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You are correct. It was originally called the Deer Creek Music Center and was built by Sunshine Promotions. They had a hard time getting it built. The Indy Star wrote :

In 1987, residents of Trader’s Point near I-465 and West 86th Street successfully lobbied to keep a new amphitheater out of Pike Township.

That was us.

Frenchlicker > Chariotoflove 05/03/2018 at 15:58

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I love the venue but you can very much tell the infrastructure around it was not built for it. I don’t blame you for not wanting it near you. I couldn’t believe the creep of the suburbs from when I went in 2007 then 2010 then 2013 then 2017. Just in that small window it’s ridiculous.

Chariotoflove > Frenchlicker 05/03/2018 at 16:34

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I went to several concerts there, and especially in the first few years, the traffic was fierce. Once you get there though, yes it’s a nice place to see a concert, even after so many years.

That direction and toward Fishers have both exploded to the point where I wonder how Fall Creek Parkway is handling all the commuter traffic into town, since I69 stops at the beltway. On our side, I65 was always a fantastic way to get right into town with minimal fuss. Of course, I don’t live there now. I get to deal with Dallas traffic, which is a disaster compared to Indy’s worst.